November 2011 Archives

The New York Times weighed in with a story yesterday that repeats a theme we've heard semi-regularly since government-worker layoffs started in earnest two years ago, namely that the downsizing of state and local government is having a disproportionate impact on the economic fortunes of blacks because they are overly represented in government jobs. The Times even quotes someone saying that the impact is so great we should pause and consider it before further layoffs.

Yet the Times' story, repeating a theme that even some fiscal conservatives have echoed, is short on facts and ignores the actual government data on public sector employment, which shows something quite different. In fact, it is whites who are more significantly overrepresented in government relative to their position in the broader population, and it is whites who have absorbed the brunt of government layoffs. To understand how the numbers work and what the Times and others ignore, read on.


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A new report by the National Governors Association and the Association of State Budget Officers shows that states will face another Total_and_State_Funds_Medicaid_Spending_Growth1.jpgterrible fiscal situation next year. Economic growth has not risen sharply enough to offset the loss of federal stimulus dollars and greater citizen demand for services, especially healthcare.

One of the biggest problems is that "spending on Medicaid is expected to consume an increasing share of state budgets and grow much more rapidly than state revenue growth, resulting in slow or no growth in education, transportation or public safety."  After federal stimulus wore off, the states increased their Medicaid spending by an average of 29 percent this year, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.  Even though about half the states have taken steps to control Medicaid costs, many budget officials believe they haven't gone far enough.
Based on new data obtained though a FOIA request, the Albany Times Union shows that it is nearly impossible to dismiss poor performing teachers in the Empire State. The reasons will be of no surprise to readers of this blog: "job protection for unionized teachers is strong and the process for firing bad teachers--called a 3020-a hearing--is so drawn out and costly that most districts can't afford it."  The average hearing takes 502 days, costs $216,588, and rarely results in termination. This is especially true in upstate New York, where school board simply don't have the time and money to go through the process. Most forgo it.

In one of the more disturbing cases, "In 2006, a Troy elementary school teacher was arrested in the Macy's bathroom at Colonie Cener for masturbating in front of an undercover officer. After fighting the district's attempt to fire him for almost a year, a hearing officer allowed the teacher to return to the classroom, without any penalty, because of his otherwise unblemished employment history."
Many public sector unions have joined arms with Occupy Wall Street protesters in support of the slogan tax-the-rich-2-copy1.jpg"we are the 99%" and the argument that taxes should be raised on the 1%.  However, it is curious how many union leaders find themselves in the top 1% and are graciously sacrificing their self-interest for the larger cause.  According to the Center for Public Integrity, leaders of major unions in 2009 earned between $173,000 and $618,000. In the public sector, the president of AFSCME, Gerald McEntee, received $480,000. The national office of the NEA has 31 officers and employees in D.C. who earn more than $200,000 in pay and benefits. Over at the national AFT, nine employees earn more than $200,000 a year. Randi Weingarten, the union's president, earned $428,284 in salary and benefits in 2009.
In California and throughout the West, government officials are trying to "protect" the land at the expense of the people who live there. Here is my latest piece on City Journal California, which details three ongoing battles -- regarding the Delta Smelt, the AB 32 anti-global-warming law and efforts to destroy four dams along the Klamath River. Rural residents are fighting to have some sort of economy to earn a living. The bureaucrats offer nothing but rules, regulations and restrictions. Suffice it to say that the regulators don't worry about where their income or pension will come from.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won some key reforms this year including legislation requiring state and local workers to contribute more to their health care and pension costs. But places like the Garden State where unions have wielded legislative influence for years require substantial reform, and Christie and his team are outlining a series of additional changes that the state needs to do to help restore state and local governments to fiscal stability.
For some reason, many people who ought to know better continue to push for a massive tax increase in California to fix the state's ongoing budget problems. But the more money we provide to the people who run this state, the more they will spend. A new report from the Think Long Committee, funded by billionaire Nicolas Berggruen, suggests a $10 billion tax increase and some reforms aimed at limiting voters' input on initiatives. Here is my column from the weekend on this. The committee includes myriad establishment has-been politicians such as former Gov. Gray Davis, who was recalled by Arnold Schwarzenegger, who also contributed to the committee. Former Assembly Speaker Willie Brown and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom participated also. So a billionaire assembles many of the state's failed politicians and comes up with a "think long" idea that amounts to the same idea these and other California politicians always offer -- tax increases. The funniest thing -- the committee mentions the pension crisis, then suggests that politicians work with unions to resolve. Brilliant.
A few weeks ago, I had a post here on how California's penchant for green statism -- a trend displayed most vividly in AB 32, the state's version of cap and trade, which is expected to cost its economy $183 billion -- is fueling its continued decline. According to a report in today's Orange County Register, the state's newest green initiative would only deepen the problem:

A proposed measure aiming for the November ballot would force California's nuclear power plants at San Onofre and Diablo Canyon to cease operations - and could cause rolling blackouts and cost billions, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst.

The Nuclear Waste Act of 2012 would require that no nuclear power be generated in the Golden State until the federal government can permanently dispose of high-level nuclear waste.

Every April, New Jerseyans head to the polls to vote on their local school budget. New research from my colleague Mark "Jay" Williams at the Common Sense Institute of New Jersey shows that those voters are given incomplete information before walking into the voting booth, and that per-pupil school costs are an average of $3,500 more than what is proclaimed to voters in the "User-Friendly Budget" advertised before Election Day.
Earlier today, our own Steven Greenhut noted the dire situation in Marin County, California, where staggering pension costs are being driven by a handful of retirees receiving huge payouts. Across the bay in Contra Costa County, the story is little better.

A devastating piece in the Bay Citizen notes that in the city of Richmond 337 public employees make over $100,000 a year -- this in a city with an average annual income of $55,000. As the report notes:

The highest paid individual was a police sergeant who earned $326,000, with $211,000 derived from overtime and "other" pay. "Other" pay can include things like incentive pay for being bilingual, uniform allowances, or extra compensation for graveyard shifts.

Source: The Bay Citizen (http://s.tt/142N2)

The highest paid individual was a police sergeant who earned $326,000, with $211,000 derived from overtime and "other" pay. "Other" pay can include things like incentive pay for being bilingual, uniform allowances, or extra compensation for graveyard shifts.
The highest paid individual was a police sergeant who earned $326,000, with $211,000 derived from overtime and "other" pay. "Other" pay can include things like incentive pay for being bilingual, uniform allowances, or extra compensation for graveyard shifts.

Source: The Bay Citizen (http://s.tt/142N2)

The highest paid individual was a police sergeant who earned $326,000, with $211,000 derived from overtime and "other" pay. "Other" pay can include things like incentive pay for being bilingual, uniform allowances, or extra compensation for graveyard shifts.

Source: The Bay Citizen (http://s.tt/142N2)

Here's bad news from the state Supreme Court, which just ruled that some non-vested retiree benefits may be immune from cuts. Per Reuters, "The California Supreme Court declined to give local governments carte blanche to hike health premiums for retired workers, saying on Monday that retirees could have a right to such benefits in some circumstances." Just when the state needed to be going in the other direction, the court put localities in a tighter box.

Pension Sinkhole

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The Institute for Truth in Accounting has just produced a study naming the states with the best fiscal practices and financial stability (sunshine states, it calls them), and those with the worst (sinkhole states). The list of states with the worst fiscal practices is dominated by those places where public sector union levels are among the highest in the country, including Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois and Hawaii. That's not surprising, considering that unfunded pension promises made by politicians to government workers figure heavily in the debt burden of these states. By contrast, the list of so-called sunshine states is dominated by places with a low-level of public sector unionization. Read 'em and weep, as they say.

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The headline is a bit more of a tease than anything. Public sector unions remain the most powerful force in California politics, bar none. Yet it's difficult to escape the sense that a change is in the air. Certainly the teacher unions' desperate (and partly successful) effort to attach themselves to the "Occupy Wall Street" movement is one sign. A new poll, reported Monday in the Los Angeles Times, may be another. 
I keep hoping my cynicism is unwarranted, but I see no evidence that Gov. Jerry Brown plans to expend much political capital to push ahead his good, but insufficient, pension reform plan. Here is my new piece for The Daily, which concludes: "Unfortunately, it appears that the governor was just being cynical. He released a decent reform plan, but he has no intention to expend any serious effort to get it through a hostile legislature. Even if he tried, it would be a tough road. The only hope is the initiative drive, and it's encouraging that pension reformers have finally settled on some good measures. California will lumber along until the situation becomes more dire, which is how its leaders handle every problem."
The Marin Independent-Journal reported earlier this month that "The soaring cost of Marin County's pension program is driven in large part by plump benefits for a few hundred retirees at the top, a new study indicates. Some 30 percent of the Marin County Employee Retirement Association's pension payroll goes to just 9 percent of retirees who get checks of more than $80,000 a year -- including ranking officials, safety officers and others who retired at top pay after long tenures."

That's crazy. It also offers a "divide and conquer" strategy for pension reformers. When I discuss the problems with the current system with public employees, they don't typically seem to care. Arguments about depleted public services and pension liabilities rarely resonate with these well-pensioned folks, who usually just accuse me of being jealous of them. But show them that other public employees will receive far more than they will receive, and that gets their interest. The public sector unions have exploited envy. Perhaps we can exploit it, too.
There's a remarkable story in today's Los Angeles Times, by the invaluable education reporter Jason Song, about the L.A. Unified School District's continued stonewalling on performance metrics for teachers. Last year, the Times did the yeoman's work of putting together its own database examining teacher performance, using statistics the paper received through public records requests. That galvanized LAUSD to do its own analysis -- which it is now refusing to make public...
On Wednesday, the Wisconsin Medical Examining Board issued reprimands to doctors accused of writing fake sick notes for protesters in February. The reprimands weren't for writing the notes, but for poor medical record keeping. The Board Chair said there's no way to know how the examinations were conducted... Here's a series of videos from the news and bloggers providing that evidence.

See the video here.

Mayor Dave Bing says that Detroit is going to run out of money next year and that cuts need to be made to pension payments and the workforce. Will this save Detroit? Steven Malanga provides insight into the Motor City's finances.

Dan Henninger's editorial today shows some of the concrete policy implications of the shift in power from the private to the public sector within the labor movement. He points out the strength of environmentalists compared to the private sector unions. To the extent unions have a voice inside the Democratic party, it is the voice of public sector unions. And their interest in major infrastructure projects is limited, as such projects have the potential to siphon away budget resources that could be directed to their members. The environmentalist-public employee union connection is a big part of the coalition that Joel Kotkin has described as "gentry liberalism."

While Henninger discusses the Keystone pipeline, states with natural gas reserves are likely to witness similar coalition alignments in opposition to hydro-fracking.

I've tried to show  some of the implications of the public and private sector union divide for America's political economy--albeit in an admittedly more theoretical way.
Forty-five years ago this month, Ronald Reagan rode to the governorship of the state of California partially on the basis of his hard line against student radicals on the campuses of the Golden State's college and universities. It might be time for Reagan redux.

As the Occupy protesters in New York saw their all-access pass to Zuccotti Park expire earlier today, their West Coast brethren at UC-Berkeley saw crowds swell to about 1,200. Of course, the vast majority of the protests were relatively harmless, if inane (the Los Angeles Times story on the demonstration cites, for instance, an art history major irate that she doesn't have a job six months after graduation and wasn't able to graduate debt-free from one of the nation's most prestigious universities). As the San Francisco Chronicle reports, however, there's a dark undercurrent at work:
My Sunday column revisits the depressing redevelopment issue, as the future of California's redevelopment agencies is argued in the state Supreme Court. The Democrats wanted to shut down the agencies for financial reasons. Republicans should have supported that move for other reasons (i.e., the agencies abuse eminent domain, run up debt, subsidize private developers, expand government planning bureaucracies, help pay for excessive pensions, etc.), but only a handful of them did the right thing. Here is my City Journal article on the subject. And here is my latest, which argues that the redevelopment situation shows why the California GOP is dying.
One of the biggest problems with public-sector unions and public-sector employment in general is the lack of accountability. It's nearly impossible to fire employees for cause. Union officials try to dispute that point, but that's self-serving nonsense. A story in today's Los Angeles Times reminds us that even employees accused of crimes are nearly impossible to fire. According to the article:

When thousands of dollars belonging to elderly residents of a veterans home went missing, police set out to catch the thief. A video camera they hid showed nurse's aide Linda Riccitelli creeping into a 93-year-old man's room and sticking her hand in a dresser drawer stashed with bait money. Investigators confirmed the cash was gone and the video showed that no one else had opened the drawer. Prosecutors charged Riccitelli with burglary, and the Department of Veterans Affairs fired her. To most, it seemed like an open-and-shut case. But a little-known state agency that rules on employee discipline saw things differently. It ordered Riccitelli re-hired, with three years' back pay because, they said, the evidence was "circumstantial."

There's no way to improve public services until agencies can get rid of bad employees. There's no way around that fact.

In the wake of the defeat of Issue 2 last week, it is important to raise the question, what now?

After all, it's not like the problem of what to do with strained local government budgets is simply going to vanish. Tough choices that would have been difficult even if some of the reforms included as part of Issue 2 passed are going to be even tougher now.

Recent news in the Columbus Dispatch regarding the Franklin County budget reinforces this,

"Nearly $25 million worth of those cuts will occur in service-agency programs, such as welfare and child and elder care, which are funded mainly through federal and state aid. The county's operating budget will bear the brunt of the rest of the cuts, about $7.3 million...

Ohio and GOP strategy

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A thoughtful piece on the implications of Issue 2 for Republican presidential strategy. Key take away point: "if the Republican nominee's share of the white working-class vote slips below 60 percent, there is virtually no chance he will get a majority of the national popular vote in 2012." Ohio is central to getting to 60 percent.  However, the disconnect between the GOP and the white working-class vote was put into stark relief in last Tuesday's referendum.
In the wake of the defeat of Ohio Gov. John Kasich's reforms limiting collective bargaining rights and requiring greater contributions for health care for public sector workers, the governor warned that towns and school districts were going to have to do their best to balance their own budgets because there isn't much state money to bail out localities that can't negotiate concessions from local government unions. That won't be easy. Government has been one of the biggest boom industries in Ohio for decades now and it was the cost of a swollen public sector that Kasich was trying to restrain.
Is Gov. Jerry Brown serious about his own pension-reform proposal? It doesn't seem likely. Earlier this week, I attended a press conference with Senate Republican leaders who called for a special legislative session to deal with the governor's 12-point pension-reform plan. The governor's spokesman nixed that idea and said the matter will be addressed next year when the Legislature comes back into session. As Republicans point out, pension reform will get lost in the debate over the state's budget. I argued in my column that the governor's perfectly good but not adequate pension plan is just for show. It's going nowhere. This week's action seems to bolster that view.
This isn't the most inspiring time in the fight against public sector bloat. Tuesday's decisive defeat of Issue 2 in the Ohio election shows just how difficult unwinding the disproportionate power of public sector unions will be throughout the nation. The outlook is similarly grim here in California, where Jerry Brown's important (though not necessarily sufficient) pension reform proposals have no clear path to becoming law. There is some good news in the Golden State, however. While the capitol may be sclerotic, cities throughout the nation's largest state are getting serious about reforming swollen benefits packages for public workers. Consider a few examples from this week's local elections:
The invaluable Mike Antonucci at the Education Intelligence Agency blog makes the same point I've been making about cutbacks in teacher staffing, namely that school districts hired so robustly that a retrenchment was inevitable, even without the sharp downturn of the last three years. He points out that in the last decade teacher hiring outpaced the growth of enrollment. Indeed, the problem goes back decades, as the chart below shows (click to expand). Notice how teacher hiring (the red line) has been on a steady upward movement even during periods of enrollment decline, including the 1970s and most of the 1980s.

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Much attention has focused on how much opponents of Issue 2 spent in Ohio as a major9373274.png reason Governor John Kasich's signature law went down to defeat. However, the electoral math was never good for the measure.

There are 11.5 million people in Ohio and about 8.2 million voters. Turnout in the off-cycle election yesterday was high at 46% (up two percentage points from the last off-cycle election two years ago), which means that nearly 4 million citizens voted. In the Buckeye State, there are also about 700,000 union members (public and private). If one counts the spouses and family members of union members, one can, speculatively, arrive at a figure somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million potential voters. With organized labor conducting a major get-out-the-vote drive, turnout among union households was probably quite high. With nearly half of the potential voters lined up against the bill (many Republican union members support collective bargaining--even before one adds reliable groups such as liberals and young people--it is very hard to see how supporters of Issue 2 could have created a winning coalition. In sum, the size of the union coalition in the Ohio electorate is significant and, in addition to being outspent and out-mobilized, probably explains the crushing defeat the Republicans suffered.
There is some rare good news from California today in the fight to rein in Public Sector Inc. A proposal to move all government employees -- minus police officers -- from defined-benefit public pension to 401(k) style defined-contribution plans has qualified for next June's ballot.
While the Occupy Wall Street protesters and Gotham's municipal unions join hands to call for increased taxes on high earners, a new report by the New York State Assembly suggests that Wall Street bonuses will be way down this year. If true, it is bad omen for state and city tax revenue.  NYS currently relies on the top 1% of earners for 40% of its income tax revenue. 

My colleague, E.J. McMahon, has powerfully made the case that over-reliance on the top end is bad policy for those who depend on public services because it makes state and city tax revenue highly unstable. It looks like events are going to prove that true once again. Nonetheless, another year of huge deficits is unlikely to change the tune of the public sector unions or the protestors.
Judith Miller's "San Francisco's Pension Crisis" article in City Journal does a great job detailing the pension-reform issue, which is at the heart of the city's election today. There are competing ballot initiatives (the establishment-backed Prop. C and the more serious reform, Prop. D) and a progressive candidate, Jeff Adachi, who has championed meaningful pension reform. According to polls, D is headed for defeat and even C is a close call. Adachi is unlikely to win. The good news is even crazy San Francisco must grapple with pension reform, but losing doesn't do much to fix things. And even if D wins by some miracle, it only reduces the bleeding. Meanwhile, much of the media are fixated on the ethnic aspect of the race, give the large number of Asian candidates. That's an absurd focus. It's as if it doesn't matter whether the union-beholden interim mayor Ed Lee or the anti-establishment reformer Adachi wins given that they both are of Asian descent. The real issue is the status quo vs. reform regardless of how anyone reports it.
When I talk about the six-figure salaries, massive pensions, bonuses and pension-spiking that's common in the government sector, people ask the obvious question, "How did this happen?" Well, the unions elect legislators and public employees control both sides of the bargaining table. They do many things in secret, usually legally but not always. A story today from a former colleague at the Orange County Register offers a great example of how this happens. From Tony Saavedra, regarding the OC Sanitation District:
...the solar energy industry? No. 

Wind farmers? Good guess, but no.

Big Oil? Close, but not quite.

How about Hollywood? Not even close.

Give up? Very well, then. The top lobbying group in Sacramento is...
In an editorial supporting Jerry Brown's efforts to reform California's public pension system, Bloomberg News gives a bracing overview of the extent of the systemic rot:

As Bloomberg News has reported, some California city managers earn more than the governor. Prison guards who take an annual physical exam collect a monthly fitness bonus of $130 -- even if they don't pass. Pay for firefighters in Los Angeles is twice the national average. One state prison nurse was paid $269,810, tripling her base pay with overtime.

California state workers' pay can be boosted for nearly 400 reasons, from holding a commercial driver's license to making a presentation to the governor. All told, state workers collected $1.7 billion of overtime, unused vacation time or other extra pay last year. That's equal to 65 percent of the state's annual commitment to the strained University of California system.

President Obama scored critics of his jobs bill a few weeks ago by declaring that legislators that voted against it would "have to tell you why teachers in your community don't deserve a paycheck again. They'll have to tell your kids why they don't deserve to have their teacher back." His inclusion of billions in additional aid for states and localities, including school districts, in the jobs bill was based on widespread reports of teacher layoffs.

But the National Council on Teacher Quality wonders exactly how many teachers have actually been laid off in light of a recent survey it undertook. Noticing a striking lack of actual reports of layoffs, the group sent out surveys to 78 of the country's largest urban districts, precisely the kind that frequently come under the greatest fiscal pressure, asking how many positions they systems had cut.In all, 74 districts responded. The results hardly suggest, as the White House claimed, that some 280,000 education jobs are at risk.us_tchrstud_ratio_graph_2.png
Start talking about some of the excesses of California's public pension system and defenders will quickly plead poverty, pointing to the fact that an average pension payout under CalPERS (the California Public Employees' Retirement System) is under $30,000 a year. That's true, but the average doesn't adequately capture how excessive the extremes are -- particularly amongst those collecting over $100,000 a year from the public till. From the Orange County Register:

...An update this week shows that there are now 12,199 retirees in the $100K club (a 34 percent increase over 2010 -- and a 99 percent increase over 2009). 
Members of New York's second largest state government union, the Public Employees Federation (PEF), have voted to ratify a four-year contract that includes a three year freeze in base pay, ten payless furlough days, and a permanent increase in employee contributions to health insurance. Gov. Andrew Cuomo had threatened to lay off 3,500 PEF members if the contract was not approved.

PSI's Nicole Gelinas talked pensions on FOX 5's Good Day New York this morning after Mayor Bloomberg announced his new plan to restructure the city's public pensions funds and create one management board. Will the change bring significant cost savings? With a staggering pension bill of $8.4 billion every year, the city could use every penny. Watch what Nicole has to say about the new plan and how the city could achieve real efficiency and true reform (and relief for taxpayers).

Restructuring Plan For Public Pensions: MyFoxNY.com

Colorado received a little national attention for last night's monumental rejection of Proposition 103, a statewide sales and income tax increase sold as a revenue generator for K-12, preschool and higher education. Across the board, Coloradans loudly expressed that they are feeling the economic hurt and that "Public Sector, Inc.," (not the website) should not be exempt from the pain at their expense. One of the interesting, under-reported side stories pertaining to 103 has been the inconsistent behavior of the Colorado Education Association, the state's largest teachers union.

Retirement Reform Rumble!

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My Sacramento Bee column with Pia Lopez today tackles the question of whether Gov. Jerry Brown's proposed 12-point pension reform plan goes far enough. (Short answer: No, not really.) 

Pia and I will have a live webchat today at Noon Pacific/3:00 p.m. Eastern. Joining us to delve into the topic further are Marcia Fritz of the California Foundation for Fiscal Responsibility and Dave Low of Californians for Retirement Security. No love lost between those two and their organizations, believe me. 

Check out Marcia's op-ed in the Los Angeles Times today, in which she takes a favorable view of Brown's plan especially in light of union opposition. And for more of the Public Sector Inc. perspective on Brown's reform proposal, see these recent posts by Steven Greenhut and Troy Senik.
My latest at City Journal California looks at the United Teachers Los Angeles's "Occupy LAUSD" demonstration.

"Until recently," I wrote, "it's been tough to pinpoint precisely where Occupy Los Angeles ends and public-employee union activism begins." UTLA's "occupation" was as much about exploiting the zeitgeist to pressure district officials on pending contract talks as anything. But I also think the "99 percent" rhetoric coming from the union's hard core casts a useful light on the split between the public education establishment and a fairly diverse coalition of education reformers.

Well, the political street theater in Los Angeles is a picture of serenity compared with what's going on up north in Oakland. But unlike the hard-left UTLA's demonstration against the conventionally liberal "1 percent" who run the Los Angeles Unified School District, Oakland's teacher union and Oakland Unified officials are virtually as one in their struggle for more money and power.

A legislative victory against the forced unionization of home-based health care providers in Michigan may be reversed due to the efforts of Republican legislators.

This year's budget calls for the end of funding to the Michigan Quality Community Care Council, which collects SEIU union dues of home-based health care providers. In 2005, the MQCCC was setup to be the "employer" of independent contractors that provide home health services. With an official employer and a vote-by-mail union election that few participated in, the contractors became unionized by SEIU and the MQCCC began skimming union dues from the government grants that paid the contractors.

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