California public pension shortfall nears half a trillion dollars

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The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research is out with a new report (PDF link) today (authored by a former Democratic assemblyman no less) that drives home just how dire California's unfunded pension obligations have become. And while the numbers are large, what's even more menacing is how fast they're growing.

According to the report, the state's pension shortfall has now reached $498 billion, a number $73 billion (or 17 percent) higher than it was only about 18 months ago. Similarly grotesque statistics abound (read after the jump for more).
From the Sacramento Bee:

Public agency contribution rates will probably double or even triple, crowding out education and social services spending. The state's general fund pension costs will probably likely to rise from its current 5.7 percent share than 17 percent.

The annual cost to the state of delaying pension solutions is $3.4 million per day.

The June 2011 funded ratio, the measure of assets to liabilities, is only 74 percent for CalPERS, using the 7.75 rate of return the fund anticipates on its investments. At a 6.2 percent rate of return, the ratio drops to 58 percent.

These are all good reasons to hope that California Governor Jerry Brown's proposed pension reforms will be successful. But they're also a reminder that steps well beyond those proposed by Brown will need to be taken in order to keep California from the fiscal abyss.


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