The most recent poll looks favorable for Scott Walker. The governor leads his two most likely opponents (Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett) and (Kathleen Falk) by 5 and 7 percentage points respectively. Even once the Democrats pick a candidate and start running negative ads about Walker it is going to be hard to change voters perception of him because he has already received so much attention. Conversely, Barrett and especially Falk are much less well known to voters, which means Walker's campaign ads might make more of a difference. As Christian Schneider points out: "If organized labor spends tens of millions of dollars on Falk and loses, it will be a major embarrassment, and a repudiation of the entire reason for the recall."
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