June 2012 Archives

Below I linked to a new report by the by the Illinois Policy Institute totaling up retirement-related debts held by Illinois. Those debts are one reason that the state's auditor general deems Illinois in the worst fiscal shape of any state, with liabilities outpacing assets by about $43.8 billion, according to a new report (see chart of all states' fiscal positions on jump page). Some analysts quibble, arguing that their state is in even worst shape. In any case, you probably won't be surprised by the states deeply in the red, according to the auditor's report.

Steve Malanga makes a great point about how the Wisconsin Retirement System (WRS) managed to appear fully funded in the view of the Pew Center. To achieve the "fully funded" label, Wisconsin transferred part of its pension liability to a different balance sheet by selling "pension obligation bonds" and putting the proceeds into the WRS.
The Los Angeles Unified School District is to be praised for the seriousness with which it's attempting to address its personnel problems. As I chronicled here, the district was caught flat-footed earlier this year when a scandal involving a teacher sexually abusing students revealed that, under the terms of a contract negotiated with United Teachers Los Angeles (the local union), complaints against educators that don't result in disciplinary action are disregarded after only a few years (unsurprisingly, the teacher in question had a long paper trail). In reaction, the district has now initiated a massive audit of teacher personnel records ... but the cost at which it's doing so is truly phenomenal.
Yesterday I observed that no accounting of the health of Wisconsin's pension funds would be complete without totaling up the borrowing the state and its municipalities engaged in to finance the system. Now comes a study from the Illinois Policy Institute that totals the Prairie State's retirement obligations, including borrowings to fund pension contributions and liabilities for retiree health benefits. The number's a whopper, as the graphic below shows.
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State employees in Connecticut get pensions worth 46.01 percent of pay, according to a memo from the state Comptroller.

They contribute 2 percent of income.

See the graphic and read about Connecticut's other pension plans at Raising Hale.
Walter Russell Mead has a nice take on the demands of meeting the 8% return most public pension funds are predicated on. He shows how big pensions funds and Wall Street interact--often to the detriment of both. Pension reformers should keep in mind that changes should not simply be to bring benefits down to sustainable levels, but also to enable "pension funds to invest in safer investments and stop paying huge fees to hedge fund managers and investment banks -- and because public pension funds are such large pools of capital, this would be an effective way to help bring Wall Street back down to earth." Yet, public employee unions continue to fight for the right of pension fund managers to make risky investments.
Back in 2003 and 2004, the state of Wisconsin and many of its municipalities faced growing pension liabilities. To deal with that, the state essentially punted the problem down the road by borrowing  $1.8 billion. It put about $700 million into its pension system and used another $782 million to finance payoffs to retiring state workers who had accumulated unused vacation time. Other governments in the state joined the pension debt rush, including the Milwaukee Public Schools, which borrowed $165 million. It's important to keep those numbers in mind amid reports that Wisconsin has the best-funded pension system in America. 
This week, California is going through the final stages of its annual collective meltdown over putting together a state budget. The final deals are being cut, the interest groups are screaming, and the state's more than 37 million citizens, as usual, are just shrugging it off (if they're paying attention at all). You would think, given that the state is trying to patch a $16 billion budget deficit, that Governor Jerry Brown's administration would be focusing solely on the mechanics of state finances. But according to reports out of Sacramento this evening, Brown is also attempting to use this an occasion to get a strategic advantage in his quest to increase both sales and income taxes for Californians.

Norwalk, Conn. - State and local governments will need to disclose unfunded pension promises alongside debt on their balance sheets beginning in 2015 after an oversight board voted unanimously Monday to change relevant accounting rules.

The rule change will not change how much debt governments actually have, just how they are required to report the debt.

The nonprofit board charged with regulating accounting for state and local governments in the U.S. will take up a proposal Monday to change the way the public sector reports on pensions.

The Governmental Accounting Standards Board is scheduled to vote on two new sets of rules, one for pension plans themselves and another for the government employers that sponsor the plans.

Despite recent calls for a federal bailout of the state and local government labor force, it seems self-evident that government workers enjoy more job security than their private-sector counterparts. We've all heard the anecdotes about governments at every level struggling to discharge tenured employees even when there is clear evidence of incompetence or even criminal behavior. These stories are seemingly unthinkable in the private sector--or at least in the non-unionized private sector, where employment is usually at will. We also know that, statistically, discharge rates in the public sector are much lower than in the private sector.

Which is why it is surprising that an increasing number of public-sector advocates are making the claim that job security for public employees is some kind of illusion.

AFSCME, the largest union in the AFL-CIO, has elected a new president, Lee Saunders. He vows to continue andElk_Saunders.jpg extend the political operations of his predecessor, Gerald McEntee. As he puts it: "We must hold politicians of all political stripes accountable. We don't work for any political party. We work for justice and fairness in the workplace. If someone turns on us, it doesn't matter whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, we will take you on and take you out." The change in leadership comes at an inflection point for public sector unionism, arriving on the heels of defeat in Wisconsin and amidst a referendum campaign in Michigan to overturn a law empowering the governor to appoint emergency managers to run strapped cities and void union contracts. 
One of the key arguments that tax-hikers have used to promote Gov. Jerry Brown's tax-hike initiative in November is that because of budget cuts, many state parks will close. Californians, myself include, love the state's natural beauty and its magnificent public parks. But news coverage rarely mentions the obvious: almost none of the 70-plus parks targeted for shut down will actually be shut down. Private foundations and even some local governments are picking up the slack. The state is having training seminars for private groups that want to run these parks. This is a good news story, an example of how privatization and private philanthropy can help stretch tax dollars. Given the bureaucratic mismanagement that plagues the government-run parks system, this approach might even improve park services.
In the nearly four years since it was passed by popular ballot initiative, California's statewide high-speed rail project has become a stand-alone metaphor for all of the pathologies of Public Sector Inc. The project has suffered from cost overruns, union meddling, a lack of viable economic or technological planning, contract cronyism, and, eventually, outright public disgust. Now, a new announcement from Governor Jerry Brown may finally kill the program outright.
Gallup has a startling new poll which shows that public confidence in our schools is at an all-time low since the polling firm first starting measuring it back in 1973. What's truly depressing is to compare Gallup's chart below, showing the decline, with charts on hiring and spending in our schools over roughly the same period. Check out those charts on the next page.

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In a 7-2 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court held that SEIU California Local 100 violated the First Amendment rights of its 28,000 "fair share" nonmembers by imposing a 25% emergency increase in dues for a "Political Fight Back Fund" to oppose Prop. 75 but not maintaining Hudson rights. The Court held that this constituted compelled speech. The Court held that nonmembers must opt-in to special assessments for political purposes. As Justice Alito put it in his majority opinion: "When a public-sector union imposes a special assessment or dues increase, the union ... may not exact any funds from nonmembers without their affirmative consent." This is a relatively narrow holding but the logic of the decision, as Justice Breyer's dissent points out, puts the entire opt-out system created by the Abood and Hudson decisions on the defensive. It points the way to a situation where all political dues for nonmembers would require them to opt-in.
Had Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker been recalled from office, pension and other public employee reforms would be a dead letter throughout the country. But this union bit of muscle-flexing backfired, and it seems clear that the pendulum is swinging hard in the reform direction. But it's still worth picking nits. Most likely for political reasons, Walker exempted police and other public safety workers from his reforms, even though police, fire and prison guard unions are the most out of control and their members receive the most lush benefits. Here's a recent column I wrote arguing that reform must include these categories. I argue:
While the pension problems of K-12 teachers dominate the headlines in California, yet another huge unfunded liability is taking shape in the University of California system, home to the state's flagship universities, such as UCLA and Berkeley. The culprits? You guessed it. A huge wave of impending retirements (which will more than triple the current number of pensioners), a tendency towards excessive benefits (more than 2,000 former employees have six-figure pensions, with a former UCLA dentistry professor topping the list at $337,000 a year), and a long history of failing to fund the obligations.
California legislators increasingly resemble those out-of-touch authoritarians who, huddled up in their government chambers, ignore the revolutions taking place outside their front door. Awash in red ink, even the most liberal cities are passing pension reform by huge margins. The public -- and even polls of Democratic voters -- show strong support for reform. Reformist candidates are winning local office. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that unions must get the OK from non-members for political spending. Yet the Legislature absolutely will not let pension reform go forward, even a modest plan from a liberal Democratic governor who is a close union ally.
Courtesy of my colleague and friend Isaac Gorodetski, Adam Freedman writes at PointofLaw.com,

"This morning, the Supreme Court ruled that public sector unions have to get "affirmative consent" from non-members if they want to charge them for things like political spending. This groundbreaking precedent will have a huge impact on the ongoing debate on just how far public sector unions can impinge on the free speech rights of workers. . ."

Last Thursday I appeared on Wisconsin Public Radio to discuss the cost of the state's pension system and the need for reform. I was interviewed for the first half hour, and then Betsy Kippers, a representative of the Wisconsin Education Association Council (WEAC), was the guest for the second half hour.

I had hoped we could both be on at the same time. Frankly, I did not think Ms. Kippers had any serious arguments to make, and I wanted listeners to realize that.

Back in 2005, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger backed a series of ballot initiatives that would have limited the power of the state's unions. In response, unions set out to raise millions of dollars to fight the initiative through special assessments on members and also on workers who choose not to join the union but are still required to pay a fee for the efforts that government unions make on their behalf. Unions can only use that money from non-members for political purposes if the workers agree to it, so workers represented by SEIU Local 1000 in Sacramento sued, claiming that the union never bothered to ask for their permission. The union countered that the annual notice it gives to workers on political spending was sufficient and it didn't need to give workers a separate chance to object, but the Supreme Court disagreed.  Workers need a separate notice and time to object when a union wants to tap them for more money.
A brief follow-up to the Joe Nocera column in the NY Times that's referenced below. It's clear reading the column that Nocera has uncovered few weighty facts and relied heavily on a liberal blogger by the name of Bob Plain for the assertion that the receivership plan for Woonsocket is being driven by the right-of-center ALEC rather than by financial necessity. But Plain himself on his blog says that his assertion is based on circumstantial evidence, as a local reporter in Rhode Island notes. It is rather startling that a Times columnist would write such a column without apparently even cracking open the Woonsocket financial books and, as Josh Barro noted, bothering to "do his homework," and instead basing his work on a blogger relying on inference. Or maybe it isn't so startling.
In his Times column today, Joe Nocera rails against conservatives who - in thrall to national special interests - think that any state or local fiscal problem is an excuse to "shrink the town government!". 

Yet Nocera's article doesn't back up his sharp point. 

Nocera uses Woonsocket, Rhode Island, as his case study. State lawmakers who represent Woonsocket, he notes, would rather send their city into receivership and slash pensions than allow the city to raise taxes, even though, Nocera says, "pensions are not the core problem in Woonsocket."

Nocera offers no evidence to back up this assertion. To ascertain whether or not pensions are a problem in Woonsocket, one would have to know how much public pensions cost there today compared to a decade ago, and know, too, the funding status of Woonsocket's pension obligations.
Times columnist Joe Nocera has a remarkably shallow and conspiratorial piece about the Rhode Island city of Woonsocket today, in which he claims that a push to have a receiver take over management of the city is being driven by the new bete noire of the left, ALEC (the American Legislative Exchange Council). There are many things that Nocera ignores, including the fact that although the school system in the city receives more than three-quarters of its funding from state taxpayers, local officials have mismanaged the funds and the press is calling for an investigation.

PACTO revisited

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Readers may be interested in my recent review of Collision Course, an excellent new history of the PATCO strike. The book is0803.1981_PATCO-strike.jpg judicious and evenhanded. It clarifies key distinctions, familiar to readers of this blog, between unions in the public and private sectors, and between labor relations in federal and state and local government. The author, Georgetown labor historian Joseph McCartin, deftly shows how the union representing the air traffic controller's sociological and psychological dynamics made a strike almost inevitable. McCartin makes a powerful case that the strike was a huge mistake: no union can (or should) back the president of the United States into a corner. Ultimately, it was suicidal for federal workers to call an illegal strike against a popular president in the midst of an economic downturn.

The Los Angeles Times ran a story today about a deal between the Los Angeles Unified School District and the teachers' union, in which teachers agree to a shorter work year as a way to save the struggling system money. This represents the fourth consecutive year teachers have voted for a shorter work period. As the LA Times notes elsewhere, this is actually in the interest of teachers, not students:

Some critics accuse [school] officials of taking the path of least resistance -- under pressure from influential teacher unions. There is, in fact, a strategic advantage for unions in taking furlough days and shortening the school year. The salary cuts that result are temporary; they expire after one year and must be renegotiated every year. In the process, teachers avoid making permanent concessions on pension or health benefits. L.A. Unified employees still pay no monthly premiums for health insurance for themselves or family members. And teachers still receive raises based on experience or additional education.


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The voters of Wisconsin and California spoke loud and clear. They are tired of the special privileges and lavish benefits given to government unions and paid for by taxpayers. Apparently unions in Michigan did not get the message.

 

Last Wednesday, supporters of the so-called "Protect Our Jobs" Constitutional Amendment (POJA) submitted 684,286 petition signatures to the Michigan Department of State -- more than double the amount needed to put the measure on the ballot in November.

TIP Logo.pngLast year, Rhode Island General Treasurer and 2011 Manhattan Institute Urban Innovator award winner Gina Raimondo crisscrossed the Ocean State with a simple message to lawmakers, citizens and public employees: the public pension problem was about math, not politics. Her successful pension reform proposal was based on a report entitled "Truth in Numbers," which shined a light on the real costs and liabilities facing her state. It was an honest effort that forced everyone to take a hard look at the facts, and in the end, take action. Now a national, non-partisan coalition of policy organizations and citizen groups - Truth in Pensions - has come together to demand the same sort of transparency in state and local government pension accounting.
After losses in Wisconsin, San Diego and San Jose, the next big test on the horizon for public sector unions is the tax increase on the ballot in California this fall. (As usual with such measures, it is being sold as a"millionaire's tax" that happens to hit individuals making more than $250k). Governor Brown and the unions know that the voters must pass this measure to address the state's $16 billion budget deficit. Otherwise, the Governor has threatened to take an axe to state spending. 
Harold Meyerson makes a passionate plea for the revival of private sector unions. He argues that one of the causes of private sector union decline is "the opposition that virtually every employer now mounts against organizing campaigns." But how big a factor is this really? Probably not that big, especially compared to larger forces at work in the global economy.

One of the many ways in which California teachers unions resist accountability is through their long-standing opposition to using student achievement as a metric by which to judge the classroom performance of educators (a tool that is used in at least 30 states). The problem for the unions is that this resistance is in violation of the Stull Act, a piece of legislation signed into law by Governor Ronald Reagan in 1971. But a ruling out of Los Angeles County Superior Court earlier this week looks to be bringing the obstruction to an end.
This won't come as a shock to anyone following funding problems in public sector pensions, where unfunded liabilities have reached some $3 trillion when calculated using a reasonable rate of investment return, but a new paper by several academic economists concludes that government employee pension funds have used an increasingly risky investment strategy that is not only dicier than that used by private pension funds, but also riskier than the investment approaches of public pension funds in other countries.

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Mark Magyar at NJSpotlight has a piece detailing the implications of GASB's changes to pension valuation on New Jersey's pension liability. Indeed, the new guidance to be adopted on June 25 will lead states to report higher liability figures on the books and that implies that higher contributions will be necessary to fully fund the system. GASB's guidance however does not impose funding requirements. It only provides guidelines for reporting purposes. What the state contributes to the system is a matter for the Treasurer to determine and the Governor and legislature to act upon. 
At the rate that California's high-speed rail project is generating stories of jaw-dropping incompetence, it looks destined to become the West Coast equivalent of Boston's infamous "Big Dig." I've posted here before about how the project suffers from cronyism, union meddling, cost overruns, construction delays, and the failure to so much as devise a business plan. But the latest revelation may be the most damning: no one actually knows whether high-speed rail would be high-speed.
Read all about it here: claiming to be handcuffed by prevailing wage laws, the state of New York will use a federal "emergency" grant to pay $51.71 an hour to up to 150 laborers to clean up and restore a hurricane-damaged creek.  

One of my colleagues here at the Manhattan Institute, Fred Siegel, wrote a great post-recall election piece for National Review Online that does an outstanding job of framing the national and historical implications of Walker's victory in Wisconsin. Siegel is honest about the future of public-sector unions and makes it clear that June 5, 2012 will not be the last "show of force" in this ongoing saga. Be sure to give it a read. . .

I have a piece today at Economic Intelligence discussing the significance of recent state and local reforms to pensions and the collective bargaining process. In sum, as the cost of benefits rise relative to budgets, something has to give. Josh Barro finds one the reason the public sector isn't "doing fine." It's the compensation packages and the unaffordable pension and health benefit promises that are now weighing down budgets. He considers San Jose's workforce and finds some interesting workforce trends. 
Josh Barro has a piece on the Bloomberg website explaining that the reason21_3-sm2.jpg
the public sector is doing so poorly these days,  as President Obama claimed on Friday, is because the cost of employing a government worker has soared, forcing cutbacks in cities, towns, school districts and state governments. Josh uses San Jose as an example. There the average cost of employing a full-time worker is a whopping $142,000 a year, up 85 percent in 10 years thanks to the soaring cost of employee benefits. Josh made a similar point in a 2010 Realclearmarkets column that disclosed that the average cost of employing a cop in Oakland is $162,000 annually, which is why the city cut 10 percent of its police force after the union refused to make benefits concessions. There are many other examples:
In my Wall Street Journal op-ed this weekend I point out that overcoming resistance from government unions to pension reform is only half the battle. Legislators in many states have crafted benefits that are as good, and in two-thirds of states actually better, than those enjoyed by workers, and that's another reason legislatures have been slow to enact meaningful reform while unfunded liabilities keep rising.


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The overwhelming victories for pension reform initiatives in San Diego and San Jose in Tuesday's California primaries were rare occasions for celebration in the fight to take back Golden State government from Public Sector Inc. But don't think for a moment that California's public-sector unions are taking any lessons in humility from their losses at the ballot box. Instead, they're now setting their sites on eliminating the competition, using a variety of methods to ward off privatization proposals that have gained traction in the wake of the state's budget crisis.
Despite a California law requiring cities that are insolvent to enter into mediation with creditors, Stockton took another step toward bankruptcy this week when its council authorized city manager Bob Deis to file Chapter 9 if mediation talks break down. At least one insider in the talks, the head of the local police union, seemed to think a filing was inevitable, given Deis' negotiating stance:

"Just looking at what he's asking for, I feel pretty confident he'll file bankruptcy as soon as they give him authority," Steve Leonesio said.


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A lot of attention rightly has been given to this week's electoral results from Wisconsin -- and to a lesser extent, San Diego and San Jose -- which show some real hollowness in government union political strength. Leaders at the state and city level (Scott Walker foremost among them) have been vindicated for pursuing bold strategies to rein in lavish pension and benefit plans or to limit directly the privileges many unions have enjoyed... and abused. Other governors, legislators, mayors and councilmen are expected to follow suit. Yet at the same time, less-publicized events in a Colorado school district soon may end up resulting in a similar ripple effect.
In my recent City Journal piece chronicling the depravity of the California Teachers Association, I pointed out that the CTA's influence on the process by which the state's public school teachers get fired has made it virtually impossible to remove educators for almost any reason. For insights into why, see this stunning chart linked to in Larry Sand's excellent new City Journal California piece, showing exactly how byzantine the process of attempting to fire an underperforming teacher is:
Scott Walker's victory in Wisconsin should embolden Gov. Andrew Cuomo to push harder for reform of public-sector collective bargaining rules in New York State -- starting with repeal of the Triborough Amendment, which locks in place automatic pay increases for government union workers even after their contracts expire.  That's the point of my column in Newsday today.
San Jose's unions didn't really fight the Measure B pension reform that passed with 70 percent of the vote Tuesday, but they did immediately file a legal challenge. Here is Mayor Chuck Reed's response to claims that the reform he championed isn't legal: 

Must-reads for today: Two fantastic op-eds by PSI contributors on the results of the recall election in Wisconsin. The first by Steven Malanga on RealClearMarkets.com shows that there's implications for other states - like Illinois:

Scott Walker decided not to hide from his state's fiscal woes, and he spent the last year fighting for his political life as a result. Illinois' lawmakers have been hiding from their budget plight since the downturn began, and they ran away from pension reform again last week to avoid a fight with the state's government unions. But today it's Walker's Wisconsin that is the better for his battle.

In Politico, Michael Allegretti takes a deeper look into how Walker changed the game by reshaping the narrative:

Shortly after the recall was announced, he established three clear criteria on which the relationship between public workers and taxpayers should be evaluated: equity in employment benefits and burdens between public and private workers; the preservation of core government services for all Wisconsinites; and--linked to both these goals--the improvement of the Badger State's economic competitiveness.

There's a new fiscal reality for states and municipalities. As states fight to get back on track, Walker is now the de-facto model for what can - and needs - to be done.

The big news is Wisconsin, with Gov. Scott Walker handily beating back a recall challenge and GOP senators/recall targets were headed toward victory, but the California news was good, also. In San Jose, the most far-reaching pension-reform measure in the state was winning with 71 percent of the vote. A pro-reform council member, Rose Herrera, was in the lead to keep her seat.
Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett is running to replace Scott Walker because of Walker's supposed attacks on public employees, but according to a report by Wisconsin Reporter (one of the Franklin Center Web sites that I oversee), Barrett stands by his calls to rein in public employee pay and benefits, also. Reported Dustin Hurst:
One of the media storylines surrounding today's recall vote in Wisconsin is that Gov. Scott Walker has enacted radical, sweeping public-sector reforms. While the new restrictions on collective bargaining and dues collection may help reduce public-sector compensation in the long run, Walker's direct impact on government compensation has been fairly modest. Take pensions, for example.

Ready for some numbers?

David Gergen, in his inimitable style, manages to obfuscate the issues at stake in the Wisconsin election. The money quote from his piece is: "there is a difference between fixing what is broken in public employee unions and trying to destroy them."  This is a pleasingly Clintonesque statement (remember "mend it, don't end it") that allows Gergen to be on both sides of the issue.
In a further sign of  the sluggishness of the economic rebound, gross domestic product slowed in the states, according to a new report. Overall, GDP growth slipped from 3.1 percent in 2010 to 1.5 percent. Led by oil and gas exploration and big gains in manufacturing and construction, states like North Dakota, Oregon and Texas did register impressive increases in gross domestic product, according to figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  But a lack of any significant energy sector as well as high manufacturing costs which held back an industrial rebound hurt states like New Jersey and New York. Below are the five biggest winners and five losers among the states:

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This morning I had the pleasure of joining central Wisconsin radio host Pat Snyder to discuss today's recall election in Wisconsin and the larger lessons that the nation must takeaway from this battleground state. Wisconsin shows that conservatives can advocate cutting taxes and limiting government without necessarily slashing the vital services that taxpayers demand." Listen to the segment on WSAU's "The Pat Snyder Show" here.

A little humor from our nice neighbors to the north can help put the tensions in Wisconsin in perspective. Whatever the outcome of today's election, there is very unlikely to be a "flotilla of boat people" trying to cross Lake Superior to flee the cruel Walker dictatorship. 
Here I talk about the recall with Fox Business Network's Stuart Varney.


Here in the Keystone State, taxpayers are on the hook for about $1.7 billion to pensions next year, a figure that will climb to more than $4 billion by 2016. In the face of these exploding costs, a group of GOP senators have proposed legislation that would move all employees hired after December 1, into a new pension plan that would operate like a 401(k) plan instead of the existing defined-benefit system, which provides pensions on a formula of years worked, highest salary and a multiplier based on position.
The Wisconsin recall movement has been portrayed as a progressive movement to counter the proposals of a Republican governor and Legislature, but there's no reason progressive Democrats shouldn't support Scott Walker -- just as many progressives are supporting pension reform in San Jose and elsewhere. In my column this week, I argue:
In 2007, a stealth unionization campaign organized some 60,000 home health care workers in Michigan. Many of these union members are taking care of family members and receive no benefits from the union. But this has not stopped the union from collecting over $30 million to date as automatic union dues deductions from state Medicaid checks.
The absurdities of California's budget process are so legion that one's ability to be shocked gets exhausted pretty quickly. Yet the newest revelations of fiscal chicanery, uncovered by the Associated Press earlier this week, are jaw-dropping even by the debased standards of Golden State politics. California lawmakers have been pillaging a scholarship fund intended for family members of victims of the 9/11 attacks to make up for budget shortfalls.
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