California Governor Jerry Brown has raised $6.3 million to promote Proposition 30, which would raise sales taxes and income taxes on high earners. A key question for the fall campaign will be how much public employee unions, especially the California Teachers Association, end up plunking down. As of July 10, they had raised about $7 million for the cause. Will the one-two punch of the Governor and the unions be enough to get voters to approve the tax hike? A couple facts to consider...
In the past three decades, Golden State voters have only passed 1 of 21 tax-related initiatives that raised taxes. (They did approve five tax-related initiatives that lowered taxes or made it more difficult to raise them). The only revenue-raiser was Prop. 99 in 1988 that increased taxes on cigarettes and tobacco. Other efforts to raise sales or income taxes were consistently defeated, sometimes handily. However, a Prop. 217 in 1996, which sought to raise taxes on high earners, and is the closest thing to the measure on the ballot this fall, was only defeated by two percentage points, 51% opposed to 49% in favor.
Looking at the historical record suggests that the vote this fall is likely to be very close. In general, California voters don't like initiatives that increase taxes. But Prop. 30 has some things going for it: It targets 'the rich'; it has the support of the Governor and the state's most powerful interest group (the CTA); and a 'no' vote is being framed as a vote against children (i.e. education spending). That may be enough to tip the balance. The the most recent poll shows that only a bare majority (52%) supports the measure.
Looking at the historical record suggests that the vote this fall is likely to be very close. In general, California voters don't like initiatives that increase taxes. But Prop. 30 has some things going for it: It targets 'the rich'; it has the support of the Governor and the state's most powerful interest group (the CTA); and a 'no' vote is being framed as a vote against children (i.e. education spending). That may be enough to tip the balance. The the most recent poll shows that only a bare majority (52%) supports the measure.
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