California tax increases -- what's the worst that could happen?

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It's a remarkable sign of California's stubborn insistence on shutting out reality that the Golden State -- possessed of the nation's third highest unemployment rate and its worst business environment -- is heading into next week's election with three of its 11 ballot measures promoting some form of a tax increase. There's Jerry Brown's union-backed proposal to raise income taxes for high earners and up the sales tax (Prop 30); liberal activist Molly Munger's attempt to impose an income tax increase on virtually all California taxpayers (Prop 38); and the deceptively marketed effort to raise taxes on businesses headquartered out of state (Prop 39). There's only one problem: even at the current rates, there are signs that Californians are increasingly looking to shift a portion of their compensation from salary to benefits in order to avoid the taxman's wrath.
From John Goodman, writing at Forbes:

Currently, the highest marginal tax rate for the federal income tax is 35%. Throw in a 2.9% Medicare tax and the highest rate for this year climbs to almost 38%. In California, with maximum 9.3% state income tax, the highest rate rises to 47.2% [Senik's note: This actually understates it. There is a top California income tax rate of 10.3% for those with incomes over $1 million as a result of 2004's Proposition 63, which dedicates the extra money to mental health services. It's often referred to as a 'surcharge' on the top rate, which likely led to Goodman's confusion].

Even Californians of moderate means face very high marginal tax rates, since the 9.3% rate kicks in at less than $100,000 of income. Take someone in the 25% federal income tax bracket, facing a 15.3% (FICA) payroll tax and a 9.3% California income tax. The combined marginal tax rate is almost 50%. This means that the individual (and her employer) have an incentive to spend up to 49 cents in order to avoid a dollar of income. California employers are betting that their employees would rather have a dollar's worth of (untaxed) goods and services in kind rather than 51 cents in cash.

It's just one of many unintended consequences that accompany a tax system as confiscatory as California's. Sooner or later, the governing class in Sacramento will figure out that, in a state with this many obstacles to commerce, higher tax rates inevitably lead to fewer tax dollars. My money's on later.


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