Union Turnout Trumps Champions of Reform

Much of the conversation here at Public Sector Inc. and elsewhere has focused on the enormous amounts of union financial contributions to the Propositions 30 and 32 campaigns in California. Supporters of Gov. Brown's Prop. 30, which will raise taxes on high-earners in California (see Steve Eide's analysis for more), have raised $41.3 million. Similarly, the five largest contributors to the Vote NO Prop. 32 campaign--the California Teachers Association, Service Employees International Union, American Federation of State & County Municipal Employees, California Professional Firefighters, and California School Employees Association--have raised $34.4 million in opposition to the paycheck protection initiative (Larry Sand's recent City Journal article provides a great overview of Prop. 32) . The two largest contributors, the CTA and SEIU, have spent $41.2 million on the two initiatives, nearly 3.5 times the total funds contributed by all of their opponents combined (for up-to-date proposition campaign contributions see MapLight Voter's Edge).

The ability of public-employee unions to funnel immense financial resources onto the political battlefield likely comes as little surprise (see Troy Senik's City Journal article for more). What probably is less clear; however, is the number of warriors they bring. According to exit polling data conducted by the Los Angeles Times and ABC News from 1978 to 2008 (see table below), union households have averaged about 31% of the Californian electorate. This is especially problematic given the nature of the initiative process in California.

Year	Election	Union Households	Year	Election	Union Households
2008	General	25%	1998	Primary	35%
2008	Primary	31%	1994	Primary	30%
2006	General	28%	1992	Primary	31%
2006	Primary	30%	1990	General	28%
2004	Primary	34%	1990	Primary	39%
2004	General	31%	1986	General	28%
2003	Recall	30%	1986	Primary	27%
2002	General	28%	1984	General	38%
2002	Primary	29%	1984	Primary	43%
2000	General	28%	1982	General	30%
2000	Primary	30%	1980	Primary	28%
1998	General	28%	1978	Primary	34%

Union members might have relatively diverse political preferences for candidates (perhaps they prefer one candidate's economic policies and another candidate's social agenda), but it seems highly unlikely that individuals would vote against single issue initiatives that directly benefit (or harm) the person's employment, salary, retirement, etc.

To underscore union voter turnout's influence on initiative politics, consider the following hypothetical:

Imagine that 10 million people (slightly less than the number of ballots cast in 2010) vote this November in California. Let's also assume that 31% of voters belong to a union (the average union turnout over the past thirty years) and that these union members vote in their rational self-interest. That's 3.1 million voters who already favor the union's position by default. The public-employee union would only need to persuade 1,900,001 voters to gain a majority. From the other side, opponents of public sector unions must gain over 70% of the remaining bloc of 6.9 million voters to secure a majority--a nearly impossible task.

Although I can't guarantee all union members will vote in their material self-interest this November, my hypothetical should underscore the up-hill battle facing champions of public sector reform in the Golden State.

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